Weekly Market Watch

Released 01 June 2015 - Weekly Newsletter

Last week recap

extended its previous week’s decline last week as asset flows favoured the Greenback over the Kiwi and with mixed economic numbers out of both countries. The rate began the week consolidating on Monday after the New Zealand Trade Balance showed a surplus of +123M versus +105M expected. The pair then dropped sharply on Tuesday after making its weekly high of 0.7320 after positive housing and Consumer Confidence numbers out of the United States. On Wednesday, the pair gained in the absence of any significant data out of either country. The rate resumed its selloff on Thursday after New Zealand Building Consents declined -1.7% m/m versus a previous reading of +10.3% downwardly revised from +11.0%. The rate then made its weekly low of 0.7079 on Friday after New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence printed at 15.7 versus a previous reading of 30.2. NZD/USD closed the week at 0.7105, with a loss of -2.7% from its previous weekly close.

The week ahead

AUD The Australian economic calendar is also rather active this coming week, featuring the RBA’s Cash Rate Decision on Tuesday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with Building Approvals (-1.7%), and Tuesday’s key events include the Current Account (-10.9B), the RBA’s Cash Rate Decision (unchanged at 2.00%) and the RBA’s Rate Statement. Wednesday then offers GDP (0.6%), while Thursday features Retail Sales (0.3%) and the Trade Balance (-2.11B). Friday then concludes the week highlights with the OPEC Meetings. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 0.7682/0.7785, 0.7839/0.7937 and 0.8024/74, with support noted at 0.7617/25 and 0.7552/59.

CAD The Canadian economic calendar is busier than usual this coming week, featuring key jobs data on Friday. Monday and Tuesday are quiet, so Wednesday starts the week’s highlights off with the Trade Balance (-2.0B), and Thursday’s key events include Ivey PMI (58.2). Friday’s important data then concludes the week with the OPEC Meetings, the Employment Change (10.2K), the Unemployment Rate (6.8%) and Labor Productivity (0.2%). Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.2537, 1.2645/65 and 1.2783, while support shows at 1.2406/09, 1.2304/87 and 1.2102/1.2203.

EUR The Eurozone economic calendar is active this coming week, featuring the ECB’s Minimum Bid Rate Decision on Wednesday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with German Preliminary CPI (0.0%), Spanish Manufacturing PMI (54.4), Italian Manufacturing PMI (53.1), and German Final Manufacturing PMI (51.4). Tuesday is an Italian Bank Holiday and its key events include the Spanish Unemployment Change (-115.5K), the German Unemployment Change (-10K), the EZ CPI Flash Estimate (0.1%), and the EZ Core CPI Flash Estimate (0.7%). Wednesday then offers Spanish Services PMI (59.5), Italian Services PMI (52.7), German Final Services PMI (52.9), EZ Retail Sales (0.6%), the EZ Unemployment Rate (11.2%) the ECB’s Minimum Bid Rate Decision (unchanged at 0.05%), and the ECB’s Press Conference. Thursday features little of note, while Friday’s important events then conclude the week with German Factory Orders (0.6%) and the OPEC Meetings. Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.1388/91, 1.1207/89 and 1.1035/1.1133, with support showing at 1.0818/99, 1.0712 and 1.0659/65.

GBP The UK economic calendar is quite busy this coming week, featuring the BOE’s Official Bank Rate Decision on Thursday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with Manufacturing PMI (52.7), and Tuesday’s key events include Construction PMI (55.1) and Net Lending to Individuals (2.3B). Wednesday then offers Services PMI (59.2), while Thursday features the Official Bank Rate Decision (unchanged at 0.50%), the Asset Purchase Facility (375B) and the tentatively scheduled MPC Rate Statement. Friday’s important data then concludes the week with the Halifax HPI (5th-9th June, 0.2%) and the OPEC Meetings. Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5491/1.5551, 1.5699 and 1.5785/1.5814, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5222/68, 1.5315/51 and 1.5446.

JPY The Japanese economic calendar is very quiet this coming week, only featuring Average Cash Earnings (0.4%) on Tuesday and the OPEC Meetings on Friday. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at and 124.14/45, 125.67/126.17 and 126.90, with support indicated at 121.84/122.18, 120.14/121.27 and 119.05/62.

NZD The New Zealand economic calendar is quiet this coming week, only featuring the Overseas Trade Index (1.6%) on Monday, the tentatively scheduled GDT Price Index (last (-2.2%) on Tuesday, and the OPEC Meetings on Friday. Also, Sunday is a Bank Holiday in New Zealand. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.7326/0.7430, 0.7273/80 and 0.7112/86. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7076, 0.6639/81 and 0.6557/71.

USD The U.S. economic calendar is quite busy this coming week, featuring key jobs data on Wednesday and Friday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with the Core PCE Price Index (0.2%), Personal Spending (0.2%), a speech by FOMC Member Fischer and ISM Manufacturing PMI (51.9), and Tuesday’s key events include Factory Orders (-0.0%). Wednesday then offers the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (200K), the Trade Balance (-44.2B), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (57.2), and Crude Oil Inventories (last -2.8M), while Thursday features Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (277K) and Revised Non-farm Productivity (-2.8%). Friday’s important data then concludes the week the OPEC Meetings, Non-Farm Payrolls (226K), the Unemployment Rate (5.4%), Average Hourly Earnings (0.2%) and a speech by FOMC Member Dudley.


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