Weekly Market Watch

Released 16 March 2015 - Weekly Newsletter

Last week recap

Continued its sharp decline last week as the ECB started its government bond purchase program and the market continued pricing in anticipated guidance for the Fed’s interest rate policy. The rate started the week consolidating at a slightly higher level after making its weekly high of 1.0906 on Monday after the ECB began purchasing bonds under its recently expanded QE program. Also, the Sentix Investor Confidence Index printed at a 7 year high of 18.6, significantly higher than the reading of 15.3 that was expected. The pair then began selling off sharply on Tuesday after speculation in the market that the Fed would remove the word “patient” from their upcoming statement next Wednesday, which would set the stage for a rate hike this summer. Economic numbers had U.S. JOLTS Job Openings at +5.0M, in line with expectations and French Industrial Production, increasing +0.4% m/m versus -0.2% expected. The rate extended its losses on Wednesday after news that U.S. banks had for the most part passed stress tests and ECB President Draghi, who reiterated the bank’s stance on monetary policy, saying that, “Our decision in September to make use of asset purchases had significant effects. But still, when we announced the purchase of asset-backed securities (ABSs) and covered bonds, there were some in the market place who doubted our commitment and the effectiveness of our monetary policy.” The pair then gained on Thursday after U.S. Retail Sales declined -0.6% m/m versus an expected increase of +0.3%, while Core Retail Sales declined -0.1% m/m compared to an expected rise of +0.6%. Also, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 289K versus 306K expected. On Friday, the pair made its weekly low and a level not seen since January of 2003, of 1.0461 as traders priced in possible higher U.S. interest rates. Friday’s economic numbers had U.S. PPI decline -0.5% m/m versus +0.2% expected, while the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey printed at 91.2 compared to an expected reading of 95.6. EUR/USD closed at 1.0494, with an overall loss of -3.3% for the week.
Extended its previous week’s gains last week as both the United States and Japan reported mixed economic numbers. The week began with the pair making its weekly low of 120.60 on Monday after the Japanese Current Account showed a surplus of +1.06T compared to an expected surplus of +1.16T with the previous number downwardly revised from +0.98T to +0.85T. Also, Japanese Final GDP increased +0.4% q/q compared to +0.5% expected. The rate then declined on Tuesday after making its weekly and 8-year high of 1.2201 after Japanese Core Machinery Orders declined -1.7% m/m, less than half the expected decline of -3.9%. On Wednesday, the pair gained after the Japanese BSI Manufacturing Index printed at 2.4, significantly lower than the expected reading of 5.7. The pair then consolidated at a slightly lower level on Thursday after lower than expected U.S. Retail Sales data. Friday saw the rate gain a fraction as traders squared positions, which brought USD/JPY to close at 121.37, with a gain of +0.4% for the week.
Continued its slide last week as BOE Governor Carney blamed the strong pound for “reinforcing the disinflationary impulse from abroad”, both countries reported mixed economic data and asset flows, which favoured the Greenback over Sterling. The week began on a positive note, with Cable gaining and making its weekly high of 1.5136 on Monday in the absence of any significant data out of either country. The rate then began losing ground on Tuesday after speculation on the Fed’s interest rate guidance supported the Greenback. Cable continued sliding on Wednesday after UK Manufacturing Production declined -0.5% m/m compared to an expected increase of +0.2%, while UK NIESR GDP Estimate printed at +0.6% versus a previous reading of +0.7% downwardly revised to +0.6%. Thursday saw the pair continue to lose ground after BOE Governor Carney stated that, “In our most recent forecast, The Bank expects to return inflation to target within two years and to make limited and gradual increases in Bank Rate over the next three years in order to achieve that in a sustainable manner. The pace and degree of these increases will be affected by a variety of factors, including the evolution of foreign prices and our exchange rate, as well as domestic cost pressures.” Also out was the UK Trade Balance, which showed a deficit of -8.4B versus -9.7B expected. Cable then made its weekly and 5-year low of 1.4698 on Friday despite worse than expected U.S. PPI data. GBP/USD went on to close the week at 1.4743, showing an overall decline of 2.0% from its previous weekly close.
Lost ground for the third consecutive week as both countries reported mixed economic data and asset flows favoured the Greenback over the Aussie. The week began with the pair making its weekly high of 0.7739 on Monday after Australian ANZ Job Advertisements increased +0.9% m/m versus a previous reading of +1.2%. The rate continued lower on Tuesday after Australian NAB Business Confidence printed at 0 versus a previous reading of 3, while Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment declined -1.2% compared to a previous print of +8.0%. The pair then made its weekly low of 0.7559 on Wednesday after Australian Home Loans declined -3.5% m/m compared to an expected decline of -1.9%. On Thursday, the rate recovered significantly after Australian Employment Change came in at +15.6K versus +15.3K expected, while the Australian Unemployment Rate declined to 6.3% from 6.4%. The pair then sold off on Friday after market expectations of tighter U.S. interest rates supported the Greenback. AUD/USD went on to close at 0.7635, with an overall weekly decline of -1.0%.
Extended its previous week’s gains last week as both countries reported mixed data and the U.S. Dollar benefited from speculation of a Fed rate hike by the summer. The pair began the week on a quiet note, gaining fractionally on Monday after making its weekly low of 1.2572 in the absence of any significant data out of either country. The pair continued higher on Tuesday after a positive U.S. employment number. On Wednesday, the rate extended its gains after positive results of U.S. bank stress tests. The pair then declined on Thursday after lower than expected U.S. Retail Sales data and despite Canadian NHPI, which declined -0.1% m/m versus an expected increase of +0.2%. The rate resumed its rally on Friday, making its weekly and a 6-year high of 1.2822 despite Canadian Employment Change, which showed a decline of -1.0K versus -3.5K expected, nevertheless, the Canadian Unemployment Rate increased to 6.8% from 6.6%. USD/CAD went on to close at 1.2779, with an overall gain of +1.2% for the week
Lost a fraction last week as the RBNZ left rates unchanged and the United States reported mixed economic data. The week began with the pair losing ground on Monday in the absence of any significant data out of either country. The rate continued declining on Tuesday after a positive U.S. employment number. On Wednesday, the rate made its weekly low of 0.7186 before gaining after the RBNZ left its benchmark Overnight Cash Rate unchanged at 3.50%. In the press conference after the rate release, Governor Graeme Wheeler said that, “The fall in oil prices is a net positive for global economic growth, but will further reduce inflation in the near term, at a time when global inflation is already very low. Future interest rate adjustments either up or down, will depend on the emerging flow of economic data.” The pair then made its weekly high of 0.7441 on Thursday after dismal U.S. Retail Sales data and the New Zealand Business NZ Manufacturing Index, which printed at 55.9 compared to a previous reading of 50.7. The pair then declined on Friday despite lower than expected U.S. PPI data. NZD/USD closed at 0.7336, with an overall weekly decline of -0.3%.

The week ahead

AUD The Australian economic calendar is rather quiet this coming week, only featuring a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Debelle on Sunday, New Motor Vehicle Sales (last (-1.5%) on Monday, the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes on Tuesday and a speech by RBA Governor Stevens on Friday. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 0.7684/0.7705, 0.7625/43 and 0.7719/56, with support noted at 0.7559, 0.7413 and 0.7270.

CAD The Canadian economic calendar is more active than usual this coming week, featuring CPI data on Friday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with Foreign Securities Purchases (3.74B), and Tuesday’s key events include Manufacturing Sales (-1.1%). Wednesday then offers Wholesale Sales (2.1%), while Thursday features nothing of note. Friday’s important data then concludes the week with Core CPI (0.5%), Core Retail Sales (0.1%), CPI (0.7%) and Retail Sales (-0.3%). Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.2985/1.3062, 1.2822 and 1.2797, while support shows at 1.2772, 1.2662/96 and 1.2563/91.

EUR The Eurozone economic calendar is moderately busy this coming week, featuring the Targeted LTRO data on Thursday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with a speech by ECB President Draghi, and Tuesday’s key events include the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey (58), Final CPI (-0.3%), and the EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment survey (58.2). Wednesday then offers little of note, while Thursday features the ECB’s Economic Bulletin, the ECB’s Targeted LTRO amount (129.8B) and the first day of the EU Economic Summit. Friday’s important events then conclude the week with the second day of the EU Economic Summit. Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.1097/1.1159, 1.0762/86 and 1.0608, with support showing at 1.0461, 1.00499 and the psychological parity level of 1.0000.

GBP The UK economic calendar is active this coming week, featuring Claimant Count Change data on Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday offer nothing of note, so Wednesday starts the week’s highlights off with the Average Earnings Index (2.2%), the Claimant Count Change (-31.0K), the MPC’s Official Bank Rate Votes (0-0-9), the MPC’s Asset Purchase Facility Votes (0-0-9), the Unemployment Rate (5.6%) and the Annual Budget Release. Thursday is quiet, while Friday’s important data concludes the week with Public Sector Net Borrowing (7.7B). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5222, 1.5033/1.5101 and 1.4950/88, while support for the pair is expected at 1.4698 and 1.4232.

JPY The Japanese economic calendar is somewhat quiet this coming week, only featuring the BOJ’s tentatively scheduled Monetary Policy Statement, the BOJ Press Conference and the Trade Balance (-1.21T) on Tuesday and the BOJ’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes on Thursday. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 122.02 and 121.84, with support indicated at 120.47/82, 119.62 and 118.29/119.21.

NZD The New Zealand economic calendar is also quiet this coming week, only featuring the tentatively scheduled GDT Price Index (last 1.1%) and the Current Account (-3.12B) on Tuesday, and GDP (0.8%) on Wednesday. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.7607/59, 0.7572 and 0.7430/92. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7312 and 0.7174/0.7213.

USD The U.S. economic calendar is quite busy this coming week, featuring the Fed Funds Rate Decision on Wednesday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with the Empire State Manufacturing Index (8.1), the Capacity Utilization Rate (79.5%), Industrial Production (0.3%) and the NAHB Housing Market Index (57), and Tuesday’s key events include Building Permits (1.07M) and Housing Starts (1.05M). Wednesday then offers Crude Oil Inventories (last 4.5M), the FOMC’s Economic Projections, the FOMC Rate Statement, the Federal Funds Rate Decision (unchanged at <0.25%) and the FOMC Press Conference. Thursday features Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (297K), the Current Account (-103B), and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (7.3). The week’s highlights conclude on Friday with a speech by FOMC Member Lockhart.


Currency Converter

Market Rate For information purposes only. Terms of Use
For details, see My Dashboard

For OzForex’s customer rate
Log In or Register Now
Rate: 0.6960
=
Rate: 1.4368
=
Convert

Free Registration

International money transfers at better rates than the banks.


Currency News



RSS Follow Facebook Twitter Follow on LinkedIn Follow on YouTube

Rate Alerts

/
 
Choose currency pair and enter the exchange rate. An alert will be triggered when the exchange rate is reached and an email will be sent to you. You can unsubscribe any time and your email address is safe – see our Privacy Policy.

NOTE: These rates are for informational purposes only

Sitemap

IMPORTANT: This information has been prepared for distribution over the internet and without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. OzForex Limited ABN 65 092 375 703 (trading as “OFX”) and its subsidiaries make no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in the website, email or its related websites. Please read our Product Disclosure Statement and our Financial Services Guide.
DISCLAIMER: OFX makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning the suitability, completeness, quality or exactness of the information and models provided in this website. Read full disclaimer.   OFX provides international money transfer services to private clients and business customers. Use our free currency converter, exchange rate charts, economic calendar, in-depth currency news and updates and benefit from competitive exchange rates and outstanding customer service.

OFX is regulated in Australia by ASIC (AFS Licence number 226 484)

Read our Money Laundering Statement and Privacy Policy.