Weekly Market Watch

Released 23 March 2015 - Weekly Newsletter

Last week recap

gained sharply last week as New Zealand reported mixed economic numbers and the Greenback was pressured by a dovish FOMC Statement. The week began with the pair gaining ground on Monday after lower than expected U.S. economic numbers. The rate then declined on Tuesday after the New Zealand GDT Price Index declined -8.8% compared to a previous reading of +1.1%, while the New Zealand Current Account showed a decline of -3.19B, in line with expectations. On Wednesday, the pair made its weekly low of 0.7273 before trading sharply higher after the FOMC Statement suggested the Fed would hold off on any rate hikes at least through April. Also out on Wednesday, New Zealand GDP increased +0.8% q/q as widely anticipated. The rate then lost ground on Thursday despite lower than expected U.S. Current Account and Manufacturing data. The pair gained sharply on Friday, making its weekly high of 0.7590 in the absence of any significant data out of either country. NZD/USD went on to close at 0.7562, with an overall weekly gain of +3.0%.

The week ahead

AUD The Australian economic calendar is quiet this coming week, only featuring a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Edey on Tuesday and the RBA’s Financial Stability Review on Wednesday. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 0.7846/75, 0.7912 and 0.8024/34, with support noted at 0.7719/56, 0.7625/43 and 0.7684/0.7705.

CAD The Canadian economic calendar is not very busy this coming week, only featuring a speech by Governing Council Member Lane on Wednesday, and then a speech by BOC Governor Poloz and the Annual Budget Release on Thursday. Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.2772/1.2822, 1.2662/96 and 1.2591, while support shows at 1.2575, 1.2563/91 and 1.2448.

EUR The Eurozone economic calendar is active this coming week, featuring the German Ifo Business Climate survey on Wednesday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with a speech by ECB President Draghi, and Tuesday’s key events include French Flash Manufacturing PMI (48.9), French Flash Services PMI (53.1), German Flash Manufacturing PMI (51.5), German Flash Services PMI (55.0), EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI (51.6) and EZ Flash Services PMI (53.9). Wednesday then offers the German Ifo Business Climate survey (107.4), while Thursday features the EZ GfK German Consumer Climate survey (9.8), the EZ M3 Money Supply (4.3%) and EZ Private Loans (0.1%). That concludes the week’s highlights since Friday offers nothing notable. Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.1097/1.1159, 1.1040 and 1.0906, with support showing at 1.0762/86, 1.0608 and 1.0461.

GBP The UK economic calendar is quite busy this coming week, featuring CPI data on Tuesday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with CBI Industrial Order Expectations (9), and Tuesday’s key events include CPI (0.1%), PPI Input (1.6%) and RPI (0.9%). Wednesday then offers BBA Mortgage Approvals (36.9K), while Thursday features Retail Sales (0.4%), the FPC Statemen and CBI Realized Sales (20). Friday then concludes the week’s highlights with speeches by MPC Member Haldane, BOE Governor Carney and MPC Member Broadbent. Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5222, 1.5033/1.5164 and 1.4988, while support for the pair is expected at 1.4950, 1.4698 and 1.4634.

JPY The Japanese economic calendar is rather quiet this coming week, only featuring Household Spending (-3.1%), Tokyo Core CPI (2.2%) and Retail Sales data (-1.4%) on Friday. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 122.02, 121.84 and 121.19, with support indicated at 120.47/82, 119.62 and 118.29/119.28.

NZD The New Zealand economic calendar is very peaceful this coming week, only featuring the Trade Balance (355M) on Tuesday. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.7847/88, 0.7679/88 and 0.7595/0.7659. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7572, 0.7430/92 and 0.7312.

USD The U.S. economic calendar is active this coming week, featuring housing market data on Monday and Tuesday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with Existing Home Sales (4.91M) and a speech by FOMC Member Fischer, and Tuesday’s key events include a speech by FOMC Member Williams, CPI (0.2%), Core CPI (0.1%), Flash Manufacturing PMI (54.9), and New Home Sales (472K). Wednesday then offers a speech by FOMC Member Evans, Core Durable Goods Orders (0.4%), Durable Goods Orders (0.2%), and Crude Oil Inventories (last 9.6M). Thursday features Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (295K) and a speech by FOMC Member Lockhart, while Friday’s important events conclude the week with a speech by FOMC Member Fischer, Final GDP (2.4%), the Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (92.5) and a speech by Fed Chair Yellen


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